So Joe's the one who's qualified?
Even after a day of mulling, Joe Biden's remarks at a Seattle fundraiser a few days ago are still troubling to me because they say something about both Joe Biden and Barack Obama. Here's what Joe the Politician said:
"Mark my words," the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy."
"They" was Nikita Khrushchev. How was John Kennedy tested? Severely :
Although Kennedy was keenly aware of some of the risks of such meetings — his Harvard thesis was titled "Appeasement at Munich" — he embarked on a summit meeting with Khrushchev in Vienna in June 1961, a move that would be recorded as one of the more self-destructive American actions of the cold war, and one that contributed to the most dangerous crisis of the nuclear age.
Senior American statesmen like George Kennan advised Kennedy not to rush into a high-level meeting, arguing that Khrushchev had engaged in anti-American propaganda and that the issues at hand could as well be addressed by lower-level diplomats. Kennedy’s own secretary of state, Dean Rusk, had argued much the same in a Foreign Affairs article the previous year: "Is it wise to gamble so heavily? Are not these two men who should be kept apart until others have found a sure meeting ground of accommodation between them?"
But Kennedy went ahead, and for two days he was pummeled by the Soviet leader. Despite his eloquence, Kennedy was no match as a sparring partner, and offered only token resistance as Khrushchev lectured him on the hypocrisy of American foreign policy, cautioned America against supporting "old, moribund, reactionary regimes" and asserted that the United States, which had valiantly risen against the British, now stood "against other peoples following its suit." Khrushchev used the opportunity of a face-to-face meeting to warn Kennedy that his country could not be intimidated and that it was "very unwise" for the United States to surround the Soviet Union with military bases.
Kennedy’s aides convinced the press at the time that behind closed doors the president was performing well, but American diplomats in attendance, including the ambassador to the Soviet Union, later said they were shocked that Kennedy had taken so much abuse. Paul Nitze, the assistant secretary of defense, said the meeting was "just a disaster." Khrushchev’s aide, after the first day, said the American president seemed "very inexperienced, even immature." Khrushchev agreed, noting that the youthful Kennedy was "too intelligent and too weak." The Soviet leader left Vienna elated — and with a very low opinion of the leader of the free world.
Kennedy’s assessment of his own performance was no less severe. Only a few minutes after parting with Khrushchev, Kennedy, a World War II veteran, told James Reston of The New York Times that the summit meeting had been the "roughest thing in my life." Kennedy went on: "He just beat the hell out of me. I’ve got a terrible problem if he thinks I’m inexperienced and have no guts. Until we remove those ideas we won’t get anywhere with him."
A little more than two months later, Khrushchev gave the go-ahead to begin erecting what would become the Berlin Wall. Kennedy had resigned himself to it, telling his aides in private that "a wall is a hell of a lot better than a war." The following spring, Khrushchev made plans to "throw a hedgehog at Uncle Sam’s pants": nuclear missiles in Cuba. And while there were many factors that led to the missile crisis, it is no exaggeration to say that the impression Khrushchev formed at Vienna — of Kennedy as ineffective — was among them.
So, in other words, like with Kennedy, some bellicose dictator in the world is going to decide that Obama is "too intelligent and too weak" and will opt to throw a hedgehog at Obama's pants, and it could be vitally serious if that "hedgehog" is nuclear-powered. But there's more from Biden:
The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don't remember anything else I said. Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."
Joe Biden is directly saying that some unnamed dictator is going to instigate an international crisis, taking advantage of an inexperienced commander-in-chief, in part because the commander-in-chief is inexperienced and perhaps viewed as too accommodating. Ever since they were picked as running mates, the VP candidates have been receiving daily briefings from national security officials. Does Biden base his words on this daily intel or is he just spitballing? In either case, his guaranteeing an international crisis in the first six months of an Obama administration demands an explanation. It's one thing to tell a guy in a wheelchair to stand up, but it's something else to reveal our hand on national security and tell the world that an incident is guaranteed to arise in part because we elected a president who is perceived to be rollable by a dictator or three. If this other nation has nuclear weapons or acquires them, then this is highly troubling. And there's more:
"I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate," Biden said to Emerald City supporters, mentioning the Middle East and Russia as possibilities. "And he's gonna need help. And the kind of help he's gonna need is, he's gonna need you - not financially to help him - we're gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right."
Not only is Biden predicting an international crisis, he is predicting how Obama will respond to the crisis and Biden is predicting how people will react to Obama's response, which will be unfavorable. The response will be so unfavorable that Biden is urging the more strident Obama supporters to circle the wagons around the new administration. Biden is saying that Obama will have made the right choice, but on what basis? Joe Biden was wrong on the Reagan defense build-up and wrong on the 1991 Gulf War. To most liberals (I'm guessing), Joe Biden was wrong to vote "yea" on the 2002 Authorization to Use Military Force on Iraq. Joe Biden was also wrong on the surge strategy for Iraq, as was Barack Obama. Why should we trust that Obama-Biden will make the right choice when a belligerent gets belligerent? It took Obama a whole week to figure out the right answer after Russia invaded Georgia.
In the early days of the Bush administration, an international crisis was stoked by the Chinese when a fighter pilot engaged an American surveillance jet. The fighter pilot died after the planes collided and the American plane was forced to land at a Chinese airbase. The American crewmen were held hostage and Prince Bandar from Saudi Arabia helped negotiate their release. The jet was held by the Chinese and eventually returned, but the Chinese presumably gained some technology in the process. That incident was relatively small and easily forgotten. It doesn't like that's the sort of incident Biden is predicting.
Biden's remarks are revealing about Joe Biden because they once again show that he has a big mouth and insufficient self-control to shut it, even when vital matters of national security are involved. He elocutes like an intelligent guy, but like with his Seattle speech and his nonsensical and wrong comments about Hezbollah at his last debate, the things that come out of his mouth are bewildering and bespeak poor judgment. What has Joe Biden really learned from his 35 years of experience? From where I sit, not nearly enough.

Comments :
If nothing else
I recommend this diary for the following metaphor:
The concept, not just of a nuclear powered hedgehog, but of such a thing being a missile weapon aimed at someone's crotch I find almost indecently amusing. Bravo, Bird. Bravo.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
On to the substance
"Crisis" may be taking things a bit too far. Doubtless some around the world will be interested to test their boundaries after 8 years of Bush. That's to be expected. In part what Biden seems to be saying is the corrolary to the McBush argument- the world knows what to expect from McCain, because it has been getting the same thing from Bush. They aren't sure what to make of Obama.
That's not inherently a bad thing, it means we have a chance to chart a new course as far as foreign policy, to make a break from the last 8 years.
I think you are reading this as far more sinister that is called for. In teh first place who are the world's nuclear power? Us, the brits, France, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Israel. Did I forget anyone? Oh yeah, maybe North Korea (although their supposed tests haven't exactly been impressive). Nobody on that list that has the capability to actually attack us with nukes is crazy enough to actually do so. The only people on the list possibly crazy enough (Pakistan, and the maybe North korea) don't have the capacity.
Besides which I think the idea that a nation will test us by lobbing nukes is a bit of a stretch. Heavy rhetoric? Sure. Geopolitical Manuevering? Possibly. Outright war, much less nuclear war? I strongly doubt it.
Here's the kind of thing I think you might see:
China decides to start holding some aggressive People's Liberation Army Navy exercises in the vicintiy of Taiwan, including landing exercises on Chinese beaches. Pretty clearly that'd be a demonstration that they could take Taiwan, which the US has historically promised to protect from Chinese aggression.
That's a challenge to a new president. Its testing him to see how he responds. But it's a world away from mushroom clouds over Dayton.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
It was a poorly considered statement by Biden, I agree
What he should have simply said is this: "when there's a crisis-- and there will be-- Barack Obama will be ready." Biden the grandstander was feeling his oats and had I guess he felt like spicing his normal stump speech up a bit. That's Biden-- he is prone to these kind of gaffes. Sometimees his open-book honesty and willingness to speak his mind is useful, but here, not so much. And you are right in that he is not going to change his stripes.
That being said, I don't think he is "inviting" such a generated crisis by merely mentioning it, as Krauthammer for one
tried to suggest. Does mentioning the possibility of a terrorist attack invite it? If so, virtually all Republicans have been inviting a terrorist attack since 9-11.
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
Let's not assume too far
Biden said an "international crisis", which is more broad than a terrorist attack. It could be a terrorist crisis, or financial crisis, or oil crisis, or nuke crisis, or Nation A invades Nation B crisis, or genocide crisis, etc.
If Biden had been more generic, then this wouldn't have been an issue. Instead, he said "generated crisis" within six months. Guaranteed. Not only that, Obama's response (or lack of response) would be controversial. Those are problematic words that he spoke, because the choice is that he's either bullsh*tting or he's basing these things off of intel reports. The notion that he's bullsh*tting on a national security issue is troubling, as is the thought that he's seen raw intelligence and is war-gaming to friendly liberal donors about future events that should not be disclosed.
It's the former
From the way he said what he did, there's no way he's talking off any kind of intelligence item. It's Biden talking for Biden, bull---ing if you will.
I am less troubled about this bit of bull----, though, than for example McCain's offhand "Bomb Bomb Iran" rendition, since that was 1.) about a specific country whereas Biden's was not, and 2.) was inflammatiory, whereas in my opinion Biden's was not.
By the way, even "guaranteeing" something by way of a prediction is not the same thing at all as "inviting" that thing, can we agree on that? That's all I was trying to say about Krauthammer's take.
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
You don't know that he's BSing
Which is why Biden needs to explain himself.
On Iran, McCain was making a joke, and not a very good one at that. Reagan did a similar thing back in the 1980s, and the only real repercussion was that a bunch of liberals' hair caught fire.
As for what Krauthammer said, I think he's extrapolating some. Biden said that some character is going to generate a crisis to test Obama's mettle. I take that to mean that said character senses weakness on the part of Obama, enough that he thinks he can get away with something.
Actually, now we can't.
We can agree that Biden wasn't intentionally inviting an attack, but inviting the world to test Obama within 6 months is exactly what his comment will have done ... intentional or not. Its like Biden knows the world sees their ticket as weak on defense and he is trying to make a pre-emptive plea for understanding or something. Pre-disaster groveling of a sort.
Republican Maverick at Large
-4:Strongly Disagree; 0:Meh; +4:Strongly Agree
Manufactured concern by the red-bars
They try to make some tortured case that Biden unintentionally invited some sort of an attack, but they voted for the guy that explicitly said "bring em on" regarding terrorists attacking our troops in Iraq.
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
tinfoil time
It sounds like Obama/Biden are going to be the one's generating it. Seriously, that's the only way that I can consider his words to have any meaning -- how else could he know what's going to happen? He sounds pretty confident about this
planprediction."You have seen how a man was made a slave; you shall see how a slave was made a man." --Frederick Douglas
I wouldn't say that
to me it sounds like he's making a prediction that someone soewhere is going to test the boundaries with the new president.
That's a pretty safe bet, really.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
so his prediction carries no information...
I see four interpretations for his statement:
For what it's worth, I think that the most likely answers are 1 or 2 -- his statement carries no information, and he's just full of it.
However, I like to give people the benefit of the doubt in assuming that their statements actually mean something, that's why I might gravitate towards 3 or 4. However, I doubt that we have good information about the plans of our adversaires (let alone their motives), so I don't think that 3 is a great explanation. Therefore, if Biden is actually saying anything, he's saying #4.
P.S. Given how specific he was about the domestic response to the crisis, it really does sound like the whole thing is planned out. It didn't not sound like he was saying that "things happen and we need your help when they do"--it sounded like he was thinking of a very specific chain of events.
"You have seen how a man was made a slave; you shall see how a slave was made a man." --Frederick Douglas
I think the focus is on the wrong part
People are focusing onthe prediction part instead of the rest of it. What he said was basically "Obama's going to get tested, and you aren't going to like everything he does but stick with us."
Remember this was a speech in Seattle to a liberal audience. He was talking to his base and telling them basically that Obama's going to carry a big stick, even though they often shy away from that.
So yes, every new president is tested, but that wasn't really the point, even if it is what people fixated on.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
A vote for Obama ...
is vote for us being attacked (as the terrorists "test" Obama's resolve). Is that the message Biden was sending? Hmmm, I think I'll vote for his opponent who they won't feel quite so much like "testing". Thanks, Joe.
Republican Maverick at Large
-4:Strongly Disagree; 0:Meh; +4:Strongly Agree
Dumb
The Marine Barracks in Beirut got bombed under Reagan, and 9/11 occurred under Bush, but I would never try to make the case that terrorists will attack us if we elect a Republican, because it is not a fair charge, and because I refuse to change how I'm going to vote or live my life based on what some terrorist might do.
Sad to see the terrorists manipulate you in this way, GR...
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
Heh, they're not manipulating ME ...
they are manipulating Biden, I guess, he is the one making the claim. My comment at the end was just for illustration purposes only regarding the effect his comments were likely to have. As you know, I have not been planning to vote for Obama for quite some time so this is hardly a change in my decision.
Are you actually going to vote for someone who is so easily manipulated by the enemies of our country?
Republican Maverick at Large
-4:Strongly Disagree; 0:Meh; +4:Strongly Agree
You have been manipulated
Your comment reveals that you consider it valid to make voting decisions based on what terrorists might or might not do. Whether you actually made your voting decision about Obama based on this Biden statement is beside the point, particularly since we know that you are in fact always against the Democrat from jump street.
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
Responding to the question at the end of your comment
It's implicit in my rejection of your original premise that Biden was in any way "inviting" an attack that I also reject the idea that this shows that Biden has been somehow manipulated by terrorists. So, yes I am going to vote for Obama/Biden with gusto while you sulk into the polls holding your nose and vote for McCain.
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
Well you got that part right!
Although there is still a slim chance I might actually make a principled vote for Barr. I probably won't really know until I am in the booth. But getting to vote for Palin sweetens the deal quite a bit ... she's the most qualified candidate on the ticket from either side. :)
Republican Maverick at Large
-4:Strongly Disagree; 0:Meh; +4:Strongly Agree
Best critcism in a while...
This is the best criticism of Obama/Biden that I've read in a while--it speaks to regular, responsible Americans rather than hyper-partisan culture warriors.
Strange how pretty much the whole argument was made by the NYTimes and Biden (props to you for putting them together like that).
"You have seen how a man was made a slave; you shall see how a slave was made a man." --Frederick Douglas